Monday, October 12, 2009

The 6 Steps to a Playoff Miracle

Kansas City's loss to Chivas over the weekend basically killed the Wizards playoff hopes, but they are currently still on life support with an outside chance. But it'll take a miracle on the level of 34th Street for the Wizards to make the playoffs. And Christmas is still 2 months away. So for the Wizards to pull off a miracle and make the playoffs, there are 6 teams' results that need to fall in line.

1. First, the Wizards need to win their remaining two games. They need to defeat both Seattle and DC at home the next two weekends to have a chance. Should they take less than 3 points from either of those two matches, they are done.

2. New England can not get another point. New England is in the 8th and final playoff spot, sitting on 38 points, 6 more than the Wizards 32. Meaning any more points gained by New England and the Wizards won't be able to get into 8th place. Should this happen, the Wizards would hold the tiebreaker on New England. New England is home against Chicago and at Columbus to close the season.

3. DC can not get more than 1 point. If DC grabs 3 points, they will pass KC's maximum point total of 38, effectively eliminating KC from the playoffs. Two points to tie them with New England would mean that KC didn't get the full 6 points, so their tiebreaker would not matter. DC is home against Columbus and at KC.

4. FC Dallas can not earn more than a point. Earning 3 points, like with DC would put Dallas ahead of KC's maximum point total. 2 points for Dallas would put Dallas on 38 points, and should the Wizards win out, they lose all tiebreakers with Dallas (including those that would include Toronto and Real Salt Lake). While in a 4 way tie between KC, New England, Dallas, and Salt Lake, KC would have won the most points (11), but Dallas would have the better points per game record since KC played one more game against the other teams. Dallas is home against Colorado and away to Seattle.

5. Toronto FC can not earn more than a point. Again like with DC and Dallas, getting a win, puts Toronto on 39 points. Earning two points, and Toronto holds the tiebreaker over KC in all the different tie breakers with Dallas and Salt Lake. Toronto is home to RSL and away to New York to close out the season.

6. Real Salt Lake can not earn more than 3-4 points depending on the situation in their remaining 3 games. Getting two wins puts RSL over KC's 38 point max. If Toronto and/or Dallas get to 38 points, RSL can not earn more than 3 points, because KC loses out in the 4 or 5 team tiebreaker in those situations (not that it would matter, because KC loses all those tiebreakers anyways). If Dallas and Toronto don't get to 38 points, than RSL can earn 4 points, since KC holds the tiebreaker in a 3 way tie between KC, New England, and RSL. RSL ends the season home against New York, at Toronto, and home against Colorado.

So as I said, it's going to take a miricle for KC to make their way into the playoffs. But I hope this break down at least gives you an idea of what to hope happens so that KC does make it into the playoffs.


MOUFWASH said...

tons of things need to happen and the match-ups on those happening actually favor us a bit, but thats a bunch of steps and TFC will beat NYRBs

great breakdown though, good to know and props if you broke that down on your own.

Mike said...

Me, the MLS schedule, rules, standings, and a trusty excel sheet to do the math...